Market Commentary | November 2025
- Daniel Wildermuth
- 13 hours ago
- 3 min read
Still Rising, Still Risky
U.S. stocks climbed again in October, powered by tech’s relentless momentum and a wave of new AI announcements. The Nasdaq rose 4.7%, notching its seventh straight monthly gain—the longest streak since 2018—while the S&P 500 and Dow set fresh records. Nvidia’s market value topped $5 trillion, and Apple and Microsoft both crossed $4 trillion. AI remains the story investors can’t look away from.
Tech continues to dominate. From chips to cloud computing, the biggest names are still pulling the market higher. As one strategist put it, “Technology is what this market cares about right now.” The Nasdaq has logged more than thirty record closes this year, and even the Dow has managed its longest winning streak in seven years. With such concentration, leadership looks powerful—but also narrow.
Beneath the excitement, the signals are mixed. Some data suggest the economy is picking up speed again; others point to cooling. The Atlanta Fed estimates third-quarter growth at a strong 3.8%, yet private data show hiring and hours worked barely grew—and may have slipped in September. The simplest explanation: companies are producing more with the same number of people. Productivity is surging, helped by smarter tools and faster systems.
That may prove to be the year’s most important story. Productivity has grown about 2% annually over the past two years, roughly double its pre-pandemic pace. Companies experimenting with AI report quicker workflows and smaller teams. Walmart, for instance, expects its workforce to stay flat through 2027 as automation reshapes nearly every role. If those efficiency gains spread, margins could stay healthy even if top-line growth cools.
History says big innovations take time to reshape an economy. Electricity, computing, and the internet all followed a similar arc—early excitement, uneven adoption, then a long payoff. AI could move faster given its reach and ease of use, but patience usually wins. In the near term, the bigger question is whether today’s expectations are running ahead of what businesses can actually deliver.
For now, investors are focused on what’s working. Global markets—from Japan and South Korea to Europe and Latin America—are climbing. U.S.–China relations appear to be warming, and more than 80% of large companies have beaten earnings forecasts. Mergers and acquisitions are also surging, up more than a third from last year as confidence returns. Corporate balance sheets remain generally sturdy, giving management teams room to invest or buy back stock.
Still, the credit markets are flashing yellow. Lenders are writing stricter terms and demanding tighter covenants—something they do when they sense turbulence ahead. These guardrails rarely appear when conditions feel safe. Tighter credit often shows up later in hiring, capex, and small-business sentiment. Those are the pressure points to watch as the cycle matures.
Optimism and AI enthusiasm are powerful, but every cycle eventually tests the assumptions beneath it. Rising productivity and steady profits can justify high prices for a while, yet stretched valuations leave little margin for error. The next few quarters should reveal whether optimism is feeding on results or running ahead of them.
Daniel Wildermuth
Portfolio Manager, Quartz Astra Strategies
This material is distributed or presented for informational or educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product, or as investing advice of any kind. This material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. The content contained herein is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.
This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Quartz Partners, LLC. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of nor liability for, decisions based on such information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. No part of this material may be reproduced or referred to in any form, without express written permission of Quartz Partners, LLC.