Market Commentary | April 2026

Wildermuth Commentary April 2026.pdf

Download PDF • 549KB

War Grabbing Headlines, Much More Happening

he first quarter ended with markets a bit rattled, though the selloff remains fairly contained. After a strong rally on the last day of March, following signs that Iran may be open to negotiation, the S&P 500 is down about 4.5% on the year. The Nasdaq has done a little worse, while the Dow has held up a bit better.

The war with Iran has clearly changed the tone. Oil prices jumped, inflation moved back into focus, and the Strait of Hormuz suddenly became a global market concern. Last Friday (March 27th), the S&P 500 was down for a fifth straight week to its lowest level since last August. Even so, the market’s reaction remains fairly contained. Given the scale of the conflict and the disruption to energy markets, a 5% yearly decline is meaningful, but hardly extreme.

Before the war began, the market was already dealing with other issues. The biggest was the repricing of the AI trade after a long stretch of enthusiasm and heavy spending. Investors were and are asking deeper questions about how much future success had been priced into the largest AI-linked companies.

As AI spreads through more of the economy, its effects are often not linear or easy to predict. Some businesses are cutting staff or rethinking spending as AI reshapes their operations, even while committing more resources to AI itself. The pace of change is accelerating, leaving investors to sort through a landscape that is becoming broader, faster-moving, and more complex. The market will likely remain somewhat more volatile as investors develop new frameworks to understand AI’s growing impact.

Before the Iran war took over the headlines, the labor market was also softening. February hiring disappointed, unemployment edged higher, and the overall picture looked less broad beneath the surface. Jobs are simply harder to find, which weighs on people’s outlooks. Of the jobs created, healthcare has been carrying an outsized share of recent job growth, which is less than ideal because, much like government spending, it tends to support activity rather than productivity growth.

On the positive side, constructive developments are coming from the banking sector. Proposed regulatory changes could lower capital buffers and give banks more freedom to lend, invest, return capital to shareholders, and pursue deals after years of uncertainty. With large banks sitting on roughly $175 billion in excess capital, the shift could support broader economic activity and help fuel mergers and acquisitions later this year. This could become a meaningful tailwind for the U.S. economy for years to come, supporting broader growth, especially given the scale of investment now being directed toward AI.

Markets are juggling a more complex phase of AI leadership, softer hiring, banking opportunities, and a war with Iran. With oil sharply higher for now and questions about near-term inflation and global growth, the uncertainty has brought markets down a bit.

But the end of the war could bring a peace dividend for both the U.S. and the Middle East. Fewer Iranian-backed disruptions to energy markets and less of the chronic instability and terrorism that have weighed on the world for decades should result in good outcomes. This may be optimistic, but we could see stronger economic growth than currently expected, particularly if the structure of global energy is meaningfully impacted.

Daniel Wildermuth

Portfolio Manager, Quartz Astra Strategies

---

DATA SOURCES

Market Data: https://www.wsj.com/market-data


INDEX DESCRIPTIONS

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index that is generally considered representative of the U.S. large capitalization market.

The NASDAQ Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index that is comprised of all stocks listed on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System stock market, which includes both domestic and foreign companies.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted measure of 30 U.S. blue-chip companies. The index covers all industries except transportation and utilities.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This material is distributed or presented for informational or educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product, or as investing advice of any kind. This material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. The content contained herein is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation. This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Quartz Partners, LLC. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of nor liability for, decisions based on such information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. No part of this material may be reproduced or referred to in any form, without express written permission of Quartz Partners, LLC.

Investment Advisory Services offered through Quartz Partners, LLC, an SEC-Registered Investment Advisor. Use of the term “registered investment adviser” or being “registered” with the SEC, or any state securities authority does not imply a certain level of skill or training.