Astra Series Market Commentary | June 2026

Wildermuth Commentary June 2026.pdf

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Markets Keep Climbing Through the Noise

The month of May gave investors a little bit of everything. Stocks moved back near record highs, corporate earnings came in better than expected, and investors seemed increasingly willing to look past war, energy shocks, and lingering inflation worries. While the mood was not exactly carefree, it certainly seemed more optimistic than cautious.

The main support is earnings. Companies in the S&P 500 are finishing a very strong first-quarter reporting season, with profits up an incredible 28%.[i] That is a huge number! The incredible rise in earnings helps explain investors’ willingness to continue buying stocks even at elevated valuations.

Institutional investors are now holding far more stocks than their benchmarks require, and they are leaning into cyclical companies that benefit when economic growth improves. These more sophisticated investors are not hiding in the “safer” parts of the market but are actively positioning for better growth.

This optimism received another boost late in the month from reports of possible progress on a ceasefire extension involving Iran and the U.S. There was no official confirmation from either side, but markets still reacted positively based on confirmation from US government officials about a 60-day extension.[ii] The market’s reaction shows how confident and eager investors are about an expected end to all the uncertainty created by the Middle East war. Reducing geopolitical risk would not only help energy markets, but business confidence would get a serious boost.

Yet, at the same time, this is not a simple “everything is fine” market. Employers are still adding jobs, and unemployment has stayed steady, but the jobs market is showing strain. Household employment has weakened, labor force participation has fallen, and hiring is becoming more concentrated in fewer industries. While a recession is hardly imminent, the poorer reports suggest that the economy is not as strong as the stock market implies.

Global growth is also under pressure. Higher energy prices and weaker new orders are weighing on business activity in Europe and Asia. The eurozone’s latest purchasing managers’ data fell into contraction territory, which means companies are reporting less activity than the prior month. That creates a difficult mix for central banks. Slower growth usually favors rate cuts, while rising energy costs argue for a more cautious approach.

Semiconductors remain another source of both excitement and risk. Chip stocks have been huge winners because of demand for AI, and the April rally in the sector, particularly internationally, was extraordinary. But the trade continues to be very crowded. Because so many people want to own the same stocks, even very good news that falls short of expectations can produce downward volatility.

Still, the overall picture remains positive. Earnings are very strong, investors are enthusiastic, and markets continue to advance despite various risks. Probably the best way to read this market is with cautious optimism. The rally has support, but it also needs continued earnings growth and some relief from inflation and global conflict. For now, investors are focusing on the progress. Unless the outlook changes materially, that optimism will likely continue to support the market.

Daniel Wildermuth

Portfolio Manager, Quartz Astra Strategies

[i] Butters, John. “Earnings Insight.” FactSet. FactSet Research Systems, Inc. 2026, May 29. https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_052926A.pdf

[ii] Culp, Stephen. “Wall Street ends higher, Brent crude eases on reports of US-Iran truce extension.” Reuters. 2026, May 28. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-05-28/

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DATA SOURCES

Market Data: https://www.wsj.com/market-data


INDEX DESCRIPTIONS

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index that is generally considered representative of the U.S. large capitalization market.

The NASDAQ Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index that is comprised of all stocks listed on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System stock market, which includes both domestic and foreign companies.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted measure of 30 U.S. blue-chip companies. The index covers all industries except transportation and utilities.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

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